Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 4

Sep 4, 2022 at 7.30pm UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
3 - 1
Penarol

Laborda (45+1'), Suarez (53'), Candido (76')
Lozano (12'), Zabala (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mendez (61')
Rak (14'), Rossi (77'), Lozano (86'), Da Silveira (90+8')

Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 22.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Penarol
49.58% ( -0.11)	27.58% ( 0.05)	22.84% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 42.59% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.34% (

-0.1)

61.65% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.52% (

-0.08)

81.48% (

0.08)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.89% (

-0.1)

25.11% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.19% (

-0.13)

59.81% (

0.13)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.87% (

43.12% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.6% (

79.4% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Nacional 49.58%

Penarol 22.84%

Draw 27.57%

Nacional	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 14.96% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 49.58%	1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0) Other @ 0.51% Total : 27.57%	0-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0) Other @ 1.03% Total : 22.84%