SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.37%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Caernarfon Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
43.37% ( -0.42) | 23.9% ( 0.05) | 32.72% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 60.8% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.68% ( -0.11) | 41.31% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.29% ( -0.11) | 63.71% ( 0.11) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.69% ( -0.23) | 19.3% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.94% ( -0.37) | 51.06% ( 0.37) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.35% ( 0.16) | 24.65% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.83% ( 0.23) | 59.16% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.26% Total : 43.37% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.9% | 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 32.72% |
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