SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 86.81%. A draw had a probability of 9.1% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 4.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.16%) and 0-4 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.28%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (1.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
4.09% ( -0.06) | 9.1% ( 0.11) | 86.81% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 44.24% ( -1.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.73% ( -1.13) | 26.27% ( 1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.44% ( -1.47) | 46.56% ( 1.46) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.08% ( -1.28) | 53.92% ( 1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.78% ( -0.81) | 87.22% ( 0.81) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.01% ( -0.19) | 3.99% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 83.15% ( -0.62) | 16.85% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
| 1-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.44% Total : 4.09% | 1-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.54% Total : 9.1% | 0-3 @ 11.98% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 11.16% ( 0.47)0-4 @ 9.65% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.08)0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.39)1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 6.22% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 5.96% ( -0.15)1-5 @ 3.84% ( -0.16)0-6 @ 3.34% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.11)1-6 @ 2.06% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.12)0-7 @ 1.54% ( -0.05)2-5 @ 1.19% ( -0.1)1-7 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.55% Total : 86.8% |
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