Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 48.61%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 2-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Connah's Quay Nomads in this match.
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