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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Wimbledon quarter-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Two exciting tennis proteges born just six days apart butt heads with a Wimbledon semi-final on the line on Wednesday, as top seed Carlos Alcaraz meets sixth seed Holger Rune in their Centre Court quarter-final.

Alcaraz defeated Matteo Berrettini in four sets to make his first-ever SW19 quarter-final, while his fellow 20-year-old Rune also came from a set down to eliminate Bulgaria's Grigor Dimitrov.


Match preview

Given Alcaraz's relative lack of success on grass and Berrettini's penchant for the surface - winning four titles and reaching the final of Wimbledon in 2021 - some justifiably backed the Italian to cause quite the upset on Centre Court to prolong his SW19 run, including former British number one Greg Rusedski.

Berrettini - who unfortunately had to miss last year's Wimbledon after contracting coronavirus - was on course to do that with a first-set success, but Alcaraz is not world number one for no reason, and the 20-year-old came storming back to prevail 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3 in just over three hours on Monday.

It was the battle of the big forehands on Centre Court, and Alcaraz came up trumps in that contest - sending an outrageous 104mph cross-court effort beyond Berrettini's reach just before clinching the third set - but the reigning US Open champion missed three match points before making it fourth time lucky.

Now into his first-ever Wimbledon quarter-final, the world number one is belatedly making his presence felt on grass - having won the Queen's Club Championships last month - and Alcaraz heads into Wednesday's match aiming to claim his 10th successive win on British lawns.

However, six double faults in his fourth-round match - including one on his third match point - cannot be repeated if Alcaraz is to hoist the Wimbledon crown aloft, but the athletic Spaniard won 71% of his points at the net on Monday and will relish the opportunity for revenge versus Rune.

Amid all the hype around Alcaraz, another 2003-born quarter-finalist in Rune is not to be discounted, as the Danish starlet will also take to the grass for his maiden SW19 semi-final thanks to a four-set success over Bulgaria's Dimitrov.

As was the case in Alcaraz's battle with Berrettini, Rune only won three games in the opening set, but the sixth seed came up clutch in successive tie-breakers before winning 75% of his second-serve points in the final set en route to a 3-6 7-6[6] 7-6[4] 6-3 victory.

Following a few cross-court backhand slices from Dimitrov on Rune's first match point, the Bulgarian changed up his tactics and tried to go down the line with his defensive effort, which missed the mark and sent the Dane through to his second-straight Grand Slam quarter-final.

The 20-year-old got as far as the last eight at the French Open this year and in 2022, when his inaugural Wimbledon main-draw appearance ended in a first-round defeat to Marcos Giron, but he is still waiting for his first-ever ATP Tour final appearance on grass.

Whichever 20-year-old comes up trumps in this youthful battle will avoid a possible semi-final with defending champion Novak Djokovic; instead, either Russian third seed Daniil Medvedev or American breakthrough star Christopher Eubanks will be waiting to provide a stern test.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Jeremy Chardy 6-0 6-2 7-5
Second round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-4 7-6[2] 6-3
Third round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 6-3 6-7[6] 6-3 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Matteo Berrettini 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3

Holger Rune:

First round: vs. George Loffhagen 7-6[4] 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 6-3 7-6[3] 6-4
Third round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3 4-6 3-6 6-4 7-6[8]
Round of 16: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 3-6 7-6[6] 7-6[4] 6-3


Head To Head

Next Gen ATP Finals (2021) - Round robin: Alcaraz wins 4-3 4-2 4-0
Paris Masters (2022) - Quarter-finals: Rune wins 6-3 6-6 ret.

Wednesday's quarter-final will mark the third meeting between the up-and-coming Alcaraz and Rune, who have previously only ever faced one another on hard courts, starting with the 2021 Next Gen ATP Finals.

That year, Alcaraz bested Rune in three short sets before going on to clinch the title, and the duo would renew hostilities in the quarter-finals of the 2022 Paris Masters, where the Spaniard coincidentally defeated Dimitrov in the previous stage.

Rune took the first set against Alcaraz, but at 6-6 in the second set, the Spaniard was forced to retire with his abdominal injury, allowing the Scandinavian to advance to the semi-finals and ultimately defeat Djokovic in the showpiece for his maiden Masters title.


We say: Alcaraz to win in five sets

Both Alcaraz and Rune are still finding their feet on the fast-paced grass courts, but having already ended Berrettini's hopes of a memorable SW19 comeback, the red-hot world number one should fear no foe standing in between him and the Wimbledon crown.

Redemption will also be on Alcaraz's mind after his Paris disappointment, and while Rune's backhand is still a formidable weapon, we can only see Alcaraz coming out on top in a thriller to march on to the final four.

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