In the rubber match of their 2022-23 season series, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday at Paycor Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Round.
Cincinnati have won eight in a row, capturing the AFC North for a second successive campaign, thanks to a 27-16 victory against the Ravens last weekend, the third defeat in the last four games for Baltimore.
Match preview
Since losing the Super Bowl in such heartbreaking fashion a season ago, Zac Taylor's crew have been chomping at the bits to get back to the big game and finish the job.
Now is where the season truly begins, and Cincy come into this encounter on quite the roll, scoring over 20 points in every game on their current winning streak.
The Bengals were a force to be reckoned with offensively in 2022-23, averaging the seventh-most points-per-game (26.1) while putting up the fifth-most yards-per-contest through the air (265) and a 101.0 rating.
Those numbers are pretty impressive, but when you add to that the fact they finished tied for fifth in points-per-game allowed defensively (20.1) and were the 10th-best red zone defence in the league, it is no wonder they are looking like a Super Bowl contender once again.
One area that has seen drastic improvement over the course of this campaign is their blocking, with two or fewer sacks taken over their previous eight outings, something which was a significant trouble spot for Cincinnati through the course of the playoffs a season ago.
The Bengals only lost one home game against their own division this season, and that came in their opener when the Pittsburgh Steelers bested them in overtime, 23-20.
Baltimore stumbled their way into the postseason with a sputtering offence, failing to score more than 17 points in their previous six games.
John Harbaugh has his defence to thank for making the playoffs this time around, as that unit allowed the third-lowest average points per game over this campaign (18.6).
With their star quarterback on the shelf for the final five contests of the year and his status up in the air on Sunday, Harbaugh has turned to the running game to help them use up the clock, and for the most part they have delivered as the Ravens rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game all season.
They held wide receivers to a sub-90 rating, giving up just one touchdown pass versus the Bengals in each contest.
That is an achievement when you consider the kind of depth that the Bengals possess in the pass catching department.
Another feather in their cap would be how well they played the Bengals on third downs last weekend, only allowing five of the 15 against them to be converted.
Baltimore have just one victory in their last four playoff affairs since 2018, though they managed to win their previous Wild Card encounter away from home, defeating the Tennessee Titans 20-13 at Nissan Stadium during the 2020 campaign.
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Team News
Joe Burrow threw for 4,475 yards this season, including 35 touchdowns, while he had probably the best-receiving trio in the game as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins each had 1,000-yard campaigns, while Tyler Boyd put 762 yards on 58 receptions.
Joe Mixon struggled to get much going on the ground in 2022-23, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, though he found the end zone against the Ravens last week, while Mike Hilton and Jessie Bates each had an interception and Trey Hendrickson posted a pair of sacks.
Cam Taylor-Britt was limited at practice this week because of a sore groin, and Alex Cappa might be unavailable due to an ankle sprain.
Anthony Brown was behind centre for the Ravens last week, tossing two interceptions, Kenyan Drake had their only touchdown on the ground, Sammy Watkins caught two passes for 79 yards, while Isaiah Likely led Baltimore with eight catches for 103 yards.
Roquan Smith, who recently signed a contract extension with the Ravens, was third in the NFL this season for tackles (169), managing 12 against the Bengals last week, David Ojabo picked up their lone sack, while Patrick Queen made an interception when they defeated Cincinnati in October.
The health of Lamar Jackson could be pivotal to the Ravens chances this weekend with their star QB still questionable because of a knee injury, Tylan Wallace is dealing with a sore hamstring, while Trystan Colon and Brandon Stephens are both ill.
Head To Head
Baltimore hold a slight 28-26 edge overall versus Cincinnati, though the Bengals came away with a 27-17 victory at home last weekend as Evan McPherson kicked a pair of field goals, and Joseph Ossai recovered a fumble in the end zone, helping the Bengals triumph 27-16.
Back in October, the Ravens won 19-17 thanks to Lamar Jackson, who hit Mark Andrews for a second-quarter score, and Justin Tucker kicked four field goals.
It has been over a year since the Ravens won a game in Cincinnati, back in Week 17 of the 2020 campaign when Marquise Brown had two touchdown catches, and JK Dobbins ran for two as Baltimore romped to an easy 38-3 win.
We say: Cincinnati Bengals 24-20 Baltimore Ravens
It would not surprise us to see the Baltimore defence shut down that Bengals offence for a while, although they might find it challenging to get anything going themselves offensively, particularly given their lack of receiving depth.
Ultimately, we believe there are too many weapons for Baltimore to contend with, and Burrow should be able to seize the opportunities when they are presented.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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