A pair of AFC division leaders will battle on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans.
Following a bye week, KC aim to pad their lead atop the AFC West, where they sit at 5-2, the same record as the Tennessee Titans, who are on top of the AFC South standings, having won their last five contests.
Match preview
As you might expect, the Chiefs are among the Super Bowl favourites at the midway point of the year, second in the NFL regarding offensive yards per game (403.3), while they are also second in passing yards, averaging 296 a game through the air.
Their 223 points scored is the most in the AFC this season, second only to the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in the league.
We have become accustomed to seeing Andy Reid's team put on a show offensively through the years, so much so that many might not realize how much they have improved against the run.
In the past, the key to beating a team as explosive as KC was to put together an efficient running attack, capable of sustaining 10-12 play scoring drives, but the 2022 version of the Chiefs have only allowed 4.2 yards per carry, tied for seventh in the NFL.
Defending the pass, however, continues to be a sore spot for them, allowing a completion percentage of 68 in 2022, while conceding 17 passing touchdowns.
AFC teams have given the Chiefs a run for their money so far in the regular season, with KC losing two games versus teams from their conference (Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts), while their two victories against the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers were by three points or fewer.
If you love smash-mouth football, where a team runs it down the opposition's throat, then you should watch the Tennessee Titans more often.
Tennessee make no secret that they will run the ball often on offence, and the Titans are incredibly efficient in that department.
While they may have the most explosive running back in the game, Mike Vrabel's secondary have often been burned for big plays down the field, ranked last in the league in defending the deep ball.
Their secondary has allowed a completion percentage of 67.5, including 14 TD catches, though they have done well at hurrying quarterbacks this year with a 33.9% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
One of the reasons the Titans have depended so heavily on the run is partly due to the health of their starting quarterback but also how poorly they protect their man behind centre, allowing 17 sacks on the season and a pressure rating of 43.5%.
Play-action passes have fooled them time and again, with the Titans 31st in the league at defending those passes, allowing eight play-action passing scores this year, the most in the NFL.
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Team News
Without Tyreek Hill, who is now with the Miami Dolphins, Patrick Mahomes has had to go down the field more often with the Chiefs pivot fourth is passing (2,159 yards), with his favourite target Travis Kelce averaging 79 yards per game through the air, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is at 70.6 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling averages 52.7.
Chris Jones leads the team with five sacks, L'Jarius Sneed has 3.5 and Nick Bolton has a team-high 70 tackles to go along with a pair of sacks.
Trent McDuffie took part in a full practice this week after previously dealing with a sore hamstring, as did Willie Gay, Derrick Nnadi could be recovered from his Achilles problem, while Jody Fortson is unlikely to feature because of a quad injury.
Derrick Henry was a one-man wrecking crew for the Titans, carrying the ball 32 times for 219 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Houston Texans as Malik Willis made his first career start, going 6/10 for 55 yards and an interception.
Jeffrey Simmons has provided them with some solid pressure along the line of scrimmage, producing 5.5 sacks on the season, while Denico Autry has five and Rashad Weaver is just behind him with four.
Ryan Tannehill did not practice on Thursday, and he could miss this contest because of an ankle sprain, Sam Okuayinonu is dealing with a sore knee, Naquan Jones is sick, while Tory Carter has a neck injury.
Head To Head
The overall series between these two teams is relatively even, with KC holding a 30-25 edge all-time, but the Titans won the last meeting in 2021 when former receiver AJ Brown had a TD catch in a 27-3 victory in Nashville.
Tennessee blew a 17-7 lead in their previous outing against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the 2020 AFC Championship game, as Sammy Watkins had seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in a 35-24 triumph as the Chiefs would go on to win the Super Bowl that season.
We say: Kansas City Chiefs 33-30 Tennessee Titans
Expect Henry to get a lot of touches in this one, and while he has the stamina to put up solid numbers, we do not believe the rest of the Titans' offence will be able to keep pace with a Chiefs receiving corps who have burned their opponents down the field.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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