Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for St Pauli in this match.