Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (11.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.