Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 56.05%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Ferroviaria had a probability of 18.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Ferroviaria win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for America Mineiro in this match.