Estudiantes
3 - 2
Alianza Lima

Rivas (64'), Mena (82'), Rivas (90+7' pen.)
Rivas (17'), Rivas (73'), Manriquez (81'), Rivas (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gomez (51' pen.), Arroe (54')
Salazar (14'), Zuniga (85'), Quijada (90+6')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Match Stats

Player Stats

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Estudiantes Merida and Alianza Lima.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes Merida win with a probability of 49.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 24.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes Merida win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes Merida would win this match.

Result
Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Alianza Lima
49.7%	25.66%	24.64%

Both teams to score 49.51%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.42%

53.58%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92%

75.08%

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.42%

21.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.33%

54.67%

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.14%

36.86%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.35%

73.65%

Score Analysis

Estudiantes Merida 49.69%

Alianza Lima 24.64%

Draw 25.66%

Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Alianza Lima
1-0 @ 12.19% 2-0 @ 9.35% 2-1 @ 9.33% 3-0 @ 4.78% 3-1 @ 4.77% 3-2 @ 2.38% 4-0 @ 1.83% 4-1 @ 1.83% 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.32% Total : 49.69%	1-1 @ 12.17% 0-0 @ 7.96% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.87% Total : 25.66%	0-1 @ 7.94% 1-2 @ 6.08% 0-2 @ 3.96% 1-3 @ 2.02% 2-3 @ 1.55% 0-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 1.78% Total : 24.64%