Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mineros win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Aragua had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mineros win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Aragua win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mineros in this match.