Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Fe win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Fe win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Emelec win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.