Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 24.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 2-1 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.