Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.79%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for NEC in this match.