Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 42%. A win for Aalesund had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Aalesund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Molde would win this match.