Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 71.7%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Trapani 1905 had a probability of 10.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.85%) and 3-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Trapani 1905 win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.