Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Ghana had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Ghana win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.