Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 45.19%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.