Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 (11.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
