Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 46.39%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
