Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
