Nations League | League A

Sep 5, 2020 at 5pm UK

Laugardalsvöllur

Iceland
0 - 1
England

Ingi Ingason (42')
Ingi Ingason (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sterling (90' pen.)
Walker (33'), Gomez (90+2')
Walker (71')

Gareth Southgate hints at England changes after Iceland win

Kalvin Phillips to give first England shirt to Marcelo Bielsa

Jordan Pickford suggests referee may have been swayed by earlier decision

Gareth Southgate pleased with England's patience against Iceland

Raheem Sterling hails England for 'finding a way' to beat Iceland

A closer look at Phil Foden's England debut against Iceland

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 50.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.51%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for England in this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	England
23.9%	25.31%	50.79%

Both teams to score 49.8%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.17%

52.83%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.55%

74.45%

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.89%

37.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.1%

73.9%

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.19%

20.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.52%

53.48%

Score Analysis

Iceland 23.9%

England 50.79%

Draw 25.3%

Iceland	Draw	England
1-0 @ 7.66% 2-1 @ 5.96% 2-0 @ 3.8% 3-1 @ 1.97% 3-2 @ 1.55% 3-0 @ 1.25% Other @ 1.73% Total : 23.9%	1-1 @ 12.01% 0-0 @ 7.72% 2-2 @ 4.67% Other @ 0.89% Total : 25.3%	0-1 @ 12.12% 0-2 @ 9.51% 1-2 @ 9.43% 0-3 @ 4.98% 1-3 @ 4.94% 2-3 @ 2.45% 0-4 @ 1.95% 1-4 @ 1.94% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.51% Total : 50.79%