Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 41.46%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Latvia win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.