Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-21s win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough Under-21s would win this match.
