Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
