Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 53.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (7.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lokomotiv Moscow in this match.