SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.37%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Vilafranquense had a probability of 27.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.84%) and 1-2 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Vilafranquense win it was 1-0 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vilafranquense | Draw | Arouca |
| 27.23% | 27.4% | 45.37% |
| Both teams to score 46.69% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.7% | 58.29% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.08% | 78.92% |
| Vilafranquense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.78% | 37.22% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.99% | 74% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.36% | 25.63% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.47% | 60.52% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vilafranquense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.43% 2-1 @ 6.34% 2-0 @ 4.66% 3-1 @ 2.09% 3-0 @ 1.54% 3-2 @ 1.42% Other @ 1.75% Total : 27.23% | 1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 9.54% 2-2 @ 4.32% Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 12.98% 0-2 @ 8.84% 1-2 @ 8.74% 0-3 @ 4.01% 1-3 @ 3.97% 2-3 @ 1.96% 0-4 @ 1.37% 1-4 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.16% Total : 45.37% |
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