Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Varzim win with a probability of 48.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Sao Joao Ver had a probability of 25.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Varzim win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Sao Joao Ver win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Varzim in this match.
