Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 1-0 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.