Whether you are a hardened football supporter or not, the group stages of the 2022 World Cup have felt condensed and somewhat exhausting, yet the relentless run of matches in Qatar has meant that there has rarely been a day without goals and talking points. That continued on Thursday evening as Japan defeated Spain from a goal which had seemingly been created from a cutback which was out of play, earning progression for the Asian nation and eliminating European superpower Germany in the process. Of course, there is now evidence that the smallest of fractions of the ball was not over the byline, making the controversy surrounding it unnecessary, but that particular use of technology should lead everyone to start anticipating that things will not go to plan for the bigger nations in the knockout rounds.
Just like punters can try their luck with a live dealer casino, they should be contemplating whether to move away from the perception that Brazil are favourites to lift the Jules Rimet Trophy on December 18. With Argentina lurking in their section of the draw, Tite's side are far too short to attract high-stake bets at this stage, and that should lead to France being considered as worthy alternatives. The 1-0 defeat to Tunisia should be regarded as a freak occurrence with Didier Deschamps having taken the opportunity to rest many of his first-team players, and that said rest can only leave the defending champions better prepared for the challenges which are to come their way over the next two weeks.
At 11/2, those betting odds may not be regarded as value for money when there is the possibility of facing England, Spain and Brazil or Argentina further down the line, but Les Bleus have landed the ideal last-16 tie in Poland, who were desperately poor in their defeat to Argentina and were only required to overcome Saudi Arabia in order to advance through to round two. On one hand, Poland now have little to lose, but it would be regarded as a monumental surprise if Poland upset France given their uninspiring form of late. With that in mind, that 11/2 will not remain for long, particularly if France book their spot in the quarter-finals as expected.
As with every World Cup, there is a particular interest in who will win the Golden Boot. As it stands, that race looks extremely competitive with a number of different players all locked on three goals, with only Enner Valencia's Ecuador no longer in the tournament. Kylian Mbappe, Marcus Rashford, Alvaro Morata and Cody Gakpo are all at the top of the scoring rankings and it would taken a brave punter to bet against France's Mbappe from eventually sitting in first place after the final. However, there is also an argument that the 14/1 on offer for Gakpo cannot be ignored when the PSV Eindhoven man has netted in each of his three appearances thus far.
Netherlands have not been one of the most impressive sides in the tournament, but Gakpo has shown that he has the quality to spearhead their charge if their talented backline can continue to keep goals down to a minimum at the other end. A last-16 tie versus USA will represent a stern test - the Stars and Stripes are yet to concede from open play - but an up-and-down Argentina may lie in wait in the quarter-finals, handing Gakpo another opportunity to boost his tally.
In terms of individual match bets, there are plenty of odds which should be deemed attractive in the last 16, including the game between Japan and Croatia on Monday. Although Japan came up short against Costa Rica, they showed in the games against Germany and Spain that they possess the energy, togetherness and quality to upset the big European nations, and that should be no different with Croatia. The Checkered Ones deserve respect for avoiding defeat in a group involving Belgium, Morocco and Canada, but at this stage of the competition, more thought should be given to how the two teams match up.
While Croatia are not necessarily the ageing team that some have suggested they are, Zlatko Dalic has made minimal changes and his side would have lost to Belgium had Romelu Lukaku not squandered numerous chances from close range. Although the bookmakers have Croatia as the clear favourites, Japan are certainly not a 5/2 outsider, and it represents one of the bets of the round.
Morocco are going to receive plenty of attention ahead of their showdown with Spain but again, more thought should be given to the individual match-ups. Despite the Atlas Lions undoubtedly being one of the surprise packages of the tournament, they do not possess the same style as Japan, and that should provide Spain with every chance of progressing by a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. The narrow margin comes from Morocco conceding just once in seven games - that coming through an own goal from Nayef Aguerd versus Canada on Thursday - but their extra quality in the final third should eventually break Morocco down in the second half, leading to a prediction of a half-time draw/Spain full-time win bet at just over 3/1.
One of the more eagerly-anticipated last-16 ties is that of England and Senegal. The Three Lions have been inconsistent thus far, a goalless draw with the USA coming between 6-2 and 3-0 wins over Iran and Wales, while Senegal were able to bounce back from a late defeat to Netherlands by beating Qatar and an impressive Ecuador outfit. It is the success in their last outing which should make Gareth Southgate and co sit up and take note, but England head into this contest having never suffered a defeat to an African nation in their history. That is not to say that it will not occur on Sunday - Senegal have netted five times in two matches and have plenty of star men even in the absence of Sadio Mane - but they have also conceded in every match, including versus tournament hosts Qatar.
If England are to progress, they may have to negotiate some difficult moments, but the firepower that Southgate's men possess means that over 3.5 goals at betting odds of around 7/2 is far too attractive to turn down.
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