A semi-final place at the ATP World Tour Finals is up for grabs when Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz take to the court in Friday's final round-robin match.
The German, favourite to finish the year-end No. 2, has been in outstanding form in Turin and will back himself to defeat Alcaraz in their 11th ATP Tour meeting, despite the Spaniard's seeming return to form against Andrey Rublev.
Match preview
Zverev came into the Finals in Turin in fine form, notching the last ATP 1000 title in Paris, and he has carried those strong performances in the French capital into the season-ending tournament.
He enters his 11th match-up with Alcaraz on the back of victories over Rublev and Casper Ruud and aims to improve to 3-0 at the Spanish sensation's expense to confirm progress to the last four.
The world No. 2 has faced zero break points in matches one and two while converting 100% of break opportunities against Rublev and Ruud, further underscoring the 27-year-old's impressive run to end 2024.
Currently on a six-match winning streak, Zverev has gone five through that spell without losing a set, with Arthur Fils the last player to take a set off the German superstar.
The 2018 and 2021 Finals champion is nearly assured of a semi-final spot but hopes to notch the top place in the John Newcombe Group by producing another laudable showing.
On the other side of the net is Alcaraz, whose involvement was uncertain before stepping on the court against Rublev on Wednesday due to illness.
The world No. 3 was incredibly out-of-sorts in his tournament-opening loss to Ruud, shorn of his typical court coverage and execution to lose 6-1 in set one and throw away a 5-2 lead in set two before falling in straights to the Norwegian.
The 21-year-old, broken by Ruud four times, could convert just one of six opportunities engineered against the sixth seed; however, Alcaraz faced none on his deliveries against Rublev and was far more clinical on the Russian's serve on Wednesday, making the most of 50% of four break points conjured.
It remains to be seen which side of the Spaniard will surface in Friday's tussle: the one who evidently struggled for fluency against the Norwegian or the pink nasal strip-sporting player whose sublime ball-striking and deft drop shots wowed the crowd inside the Inalpi Arena.
While several scenarios entering the final round-robin match add to the sense of jeopardy, Alcaraz aims to notch a sixth tour-level victory over Zverev to give himself the best chance of advancing to the last four.
Tournament so far
Alexander Zverev:
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-4
Round robin: vs. Casper Ruud 7-6[3] 6-3
Carlos Alcaraz:
Round robin: vs. Casper Ruud 1-6 5-7
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-3 7-6[8]
Head To Head
French Open (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Quarter-finals: Alcaraz 6-3 6-1
Australian Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Zverev 6-1 6-3 6-7[2] 6-4
ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Zverev 6-7[3] 6-3 6-4
US Open (2023) - Quarter-finals: Alcaraz 6-3 6-2 6-4
Madrid Open (2023) - Last 16: Alcaraz 6-1 6-2
French Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev 6-4 6-4 4-6 7-6[7]
Madrid Open (2022) - Final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-1
Erste Bank Open (2021) - Semi-final: Zverev 6-3 6-3
Mexican Open (2021) - First round: Zverev 6-3 6-1
Zverev and Alcaraz have split 10 previous meetings on the Tour, with Friday's victor edging ahead in their head-to-head.
The Spaniard leads their 2024 tussles 2-1, the latter of which came in the thrilling championship match at Roland Garros that went to a decider.
Friday's match is a rematch of last year's round-robin encounter, which Zverev won in three sets, and a repeat will be what the doctor ordered for the German player.
The world No. 2 has a mixed record against top-10 opponents this season, claiming seven wins from 13 matches — he entered Turin 5-6 in such encounters.
On the other hand, Alcaraz has a 12-4 record against that elite group this year, emphasising his performance against the best players on the ATP Tour.
We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets
As always, Alcaraz's best tennis and variety should have enough to beat any opponent, but his dips and ongoing physical situation mean the 21-year-old is not at 100%.
Regardless, with qualification at stake, the Spaniard is backed for success against Zverev to edge ahead in their rivalry and end the German's ongoing winning streak.
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