Jannik Sinner or Taylor Fritz could advance from the ATP World Tour Finals round-robin when the Ilie Nastase Group leaders tussle on Tuesday night.
Both players got the better of tournament-opening opponents: Sinner dispatched Alex de Minaur in two sets, and Fritz took care of Daniil Medvedev in straights.
Match preview
Despite starting slowly against De Minaur, Sinner recovered from an early break to get back at his Australian opponent twice in set one and once in set two to seal a routine 6-3, 6-4 victory over the debutant.
That success was the Italian opponent's 66th of 2024 — level with Alexander Zverev, who takes on Andrey Rublev in his first outing in Turin on Monday — underscoring the year-end No. 1's strong season.
Favourite to secure the event on home turf, the 23-year-old enters Tuesday seeking his eighth consecutive victory following a recent Shanghai title.
Undefeated since losing the Beijing final to Carlos Alcaraz, the Italian has reeled off seven consecutive wins and is the favourite to extend that run against the American No. 1 player, with qualification possible if he edges the 27-year-old.
Sinner could seal a semi-final berth if he defeats Fritz and De Minaur does likewise against Medvedev or if the Russian claims a three-set victory over the debutant and the No. 1 seed secures a third ATP Tour success over his American opponent in two.
On the other hand, the United States player could seal his place in the last four if he defeats the top seed and Medvedev does the same against De Minaur or notches a straight-set win and the Australian beats the 2020 ATP Finals winner.
While the US Open finalist could come unstuck, his motivation heading into a rematch with his conqueror in New York cannot be questioned, with Sinner clinching a three-set win at Flushing Meadows.
The American player's results have been mixed since the final Grand Slam of 2024, underscored by early exits in Tokyo and Paris sandwiching a semi-final run in Shanghai, where Novak Djokovic denied him a Sinner rematch.
Having served commendably in his 6-4, 6-3 win over Medvedev — making 70% of his first deliveries and winning 85% of points on those opening serves — and taken advantage of 50% of four break-point opportunities, the eight-time champion seeks a second tour-level triumph over the Italian star.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-4
Taylor Fritz:
Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-3
Head To Head
US Open (2024) - Final: Sinner 6-3 6-4 7-5
Indian Wells (2023) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-4 4-6 6-4
Indian Wells (2021) - Fourth round: Fritz 6-4 6-3
Although Fritz won the first match-up at Indian Wells three years ago, Sinner's ascent from contender to becoming the ATP Tour's finest player has seen the Italian secure consecutive wins over the American.
Their last encounter was the US Open final, claimed fairly comfortably in straights by the world No. 1 for his second Grand Slam success.
Fritz has secured eight top-10 victories in 2024 and seeks to extend his career season-high to follow Sunday's win over Medvedev.
We say: Sinner to win in two sets
Having overcome a slow start against De Minaur, Sinner showed the baseline prowess and ball-striking capability that have elevated him to the top of men's tennis.
He is backed to record a third straight success over the American player to improve to 3-1 in their head-to-head.
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