Tommy Paul and Alejandro Tabilo battle in the top match of Sunday's third-round ties at the Shanghai Masters.
A win for either in this match could be crucial for their confidence and chances of making a deep run in the tournament, given their mixed Masters 1000 results this season.
Match preview
Paul was a heavy favourite to make it into round three against Fabio Fognini and the American notched a comfortable 6-1, 6-3 against the Italian.
The American played clinical tennis against his experienced second-round opponent to convert all four break points, and he faced none on his service games.
Furthermore, he reeled off seven aces, won 77% of points on his first serve and had an even better conversion on seconds (81%) in a dominant display.
Despite a semi-final run at Indian Wells and reaching the quarters in Rome, Paul's other results at Masters 1000 events have had him eliminated early, underscored by August's round of 32 loss in Canada and a round of 64 exit in Cincinnati.
Although the 11th seed targets a deep run in Shanghai, so does Tabilo, who had often failed to make it to a third match in ATP 1000 events in 2024, with his semi-final run in Rome his finest before exiting to Alexander Zverev in three sets.
The Chilean got the better of Arthur Rinderknech in two sets — 6-3, 6-2 — to set up Sunday's encounter with Paul.
Even though the No. 19 seed commendably manufactured a surfeit of break points — 12 altogether — only four were converted against the Frenchman, and a clinical edge is required to outdo his American opponent on Sunday.
Having exited in his tournament-opening match against Luciano Darderi in Cincy, Tabilo's recent victory against Rinderknech means he has outdone his last performance at an ATP 1000 event, and now targets a fourth-round match on his Shanghai debut at Paul's expense.
Tournament so far
Tommy Paul:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Fabio Fognini 6-1 6-3
Alejandro Yabilo:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 6-3 6-2
Head To Head
Queen's Club (2024) - Round of 16: Paul 6-3 6-4
Paul leads his head-to-head with Tabilo on the ATP Tour after claiming a two-set victory en route to notching his only title on grass.
While the American's 40-16 (11-6 at ATP 1000 events) record in 2024 outdoes the 23-year-old's 29-23 win-loss record (10-7 at Masters events), the higher-ranked player should not expect a straightforward match.
We say: Paul to win in three sets
Even though the match could potentially go to three sets, Paul should overcome Tabilo if he maintains the high level of play displayed in his second-round victory against Fognini to set up a fourth-round encounter with Tomas Machac or Aleksandar Vukic.
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