Sports Mole previews Saturday's US Open third-round match between Iga Swiatek and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Iga Swiatek can book a place in the fourth round of the US Open for a fourth successive year when she takes on Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on Saturday.

The top-seeded player on the women's draw had no trouble with Ena Shibahara in her second-round match, winning 6-0 6-1, while Pavlyuchenkova came from behind to defeat Elisabetta Cocciaretto 5-7 6-1 6-2.

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Match preview

The 2022 US Open champion could not have asked for a more straightforward result on Thursday, with Swiatek needing just an hour and five minutes to dispose of the 26-year-old American-born player, who represents Japan.

Swiatek's first serve overpowered her opponent at Arthur Ashe Stadium, winning a sparkling 83% of hers throughout the encounter.

With a break point success rate of 56%, she was far and away the better player on the day, while she only allowed Shibahara to win 51% of her first serve points.

The reigning three-time French Open champion has exited two Grand Slams this year in the third round, losing to Yulia Putintseva at Wimbledon (6-3 1-6 2-6), while squandering a one-set lead at the Australian Open and suffering a defeat against Linda Noskova (6-3 3-6 4-6).

Her aggressive nature, which focuses on offence, has helped the 23-year-old Polish player win nearly 50% of her return points this year (48.6%), though she has also made her share of unforced errors, registering 81 double faults in 2024.

She has perhaps the strongest forehand and backhand on the women's side, all leading to her winning 83.6% of her first-serve points.

For the first time this year, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has made it beyond the second round of a Grand Slam, reacting brilliantly after losing her opening set against the 23-year-old Italian this week.

Pavlyuchenkova got back into that match by utilising her sensational forehand, hitting a remarkable 44 winners while only conceding 12.

Meanwhile, she won 69% of her first serve points, enabling her to make the third round of a Grand Slam event for the first time since the 2023 French Open (quarter-finals).

Seeded 25th in the women's singles draw, the 33-year-old has won 71.2% of her service games this year with a first serve percentage of 62.3%.

This year, her service game has been a double-edged sword, with the Russian hitting 133 aces and collecting 161 double faults.

Still, she has had her share of strong performances at major tournaments, losing the 2021 French Open final to Barbora Krejcikova while exiting seven Grand Slams in the quarter-final stage, including the 2011 US Open against Serena Williams.

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Tournament so far

Iga Swiatek:

First round: vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-4 7-6 (8-6)

Second round: vs. Ena Shibahara 6-0 6-1

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:

First round: vs. Taylah Preston 6-2 6-0

Second round: vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto 5-7 6-1 6-2

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Head To Head

Italian Open (2023)- Second round- Swiatek wins 6-0 6-0

When these two met for the first time just over a year ago, Swiatek won 21 of her 28 first serve points and 38% of her break points, though second serves proved decisive, with the Warsaw native winning 47% of hers and Pavlyuchenkova only winning 13% in that department.

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We say: Swiatek to win in three sets

It may take a tremendous amount of unforced errors for the Russian to upset the top seed, and we do not see Swiatek faltering, given the wide array of shots that she can hit at an elite level.

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