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Preview: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Saturday's US Open third-round match between Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Jessica Pegula, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Unseeded Jessica Bouzas Maneiro seeks a US Open third-round upset against Jessica Pegula on Saturday.

The Spanish player is making her debut in the main draw in New York and hopes to continue her admirable run by stunning the in-form Pegula on home soil.


Match preview

Despite never having played at the US Open, Bouzas Maneiro has notched consecutive wins to put her one round away from matching her best performance at the leading events.

Unable to make it through qualifying last year, the Spanish player was probably just pleased to be involved in the main draw this time but has thrived so far, clinching straight-set wins over Petra Martic and British No. 1 Katie Boulter, edging the latter 7-5, 7-5 on Thursday.

Beating favourite Boulter in two tight sets in the second round has sent the US Open debutant into a third match at Flushing Meadows, where she aims to surpass her third-round run at Wimbledon in the second Major of the year.

The 21-year-old has improved in the leading events since her main draw debut at the 2023 Championships, exiting in round one before suffering another tournament-opening loss in Paris this year, but advancing to the third round in consecutive Slams should give the world No. 74 confidence before facing Pegula on Saturday.

Only by riding the wave of that early momentum allied with keeping a calm head can she outdo the in-form Pegula, who has claimed 11 wins in her last 12 matches on the WTA Tour.

The American's victories aided a successful title defence at the Canadian Open in Toronto before reaching the final in Cincinnati, where she lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the final.

That recent loss to the No. 2 seed remains the 30-year-old's only blemish in singles since her second-round loss to Elina Svitolina at the Paris Olympics, with the No. 6 seed handling the transition from grass at Wimbledon to clay at the Games to hard courts better than most.

After suffering two round-two losses in Australia and the Championships, Pegula has already surpassed her 2024 performance but seeks to at least advance to a seventh quarter-final — she will face Sara Errani or Diana Shnaider in round four for a place in the last eight by avoiding a shock loss on Saturday.

Although she cannot afford to look too far ahead, the 30-year-old could be forgiven for being excited at an ostensibly uncomplicated path to this year's quarter-final.


Tournament so far

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro:

First round: vs. Petra Martic 6-3 6-0
Second round: vs. Katie Boulter 7-5 7-5

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3


Head To Head

Both women will face off for the first time in the third-round match, with the 21-year-old Bouzas Maneiro keen to surprise the American nine years her senior.

Pegula has six singles titles to her younger opponent's none, with two tour-level victories coming in 2024 on grass in Berlin and recently in Toronto.


We say: Pegula to win in three sets

Despite the possibility of Bouzas Maneiro surprising her higher-ranked opponent, Pegula should get the better of the Spanish player, even if she could be forced into a decider against an in-form player yet to drop a set in New York.

Regardless, she must avoid the errors that led to two breaks of serve in set one in her all-American success over Kenin in the previous round to avoid complications against the 21-year-old.

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