Aryna Sabalenka has unfinished business at the US Open when she bids for a first title at Flushing Meadows on Saturday against in-form home hope Jessica Pegula.
The American impressively upended Karolina Muchova's upswing to punch her ticket into a maiden Slam final and aims to beat arguably the WTA Tour's finest hard-court player at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Match preview
At 6-1 and 2-0 down against Muchova in the second set, it seemed like the dream of a maiden Grand Slam final was dying for Pegula; however, a resurgence combined with her opponent's seeming dip in performance saw the sixth seed roar back to clinch a 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory.
Although the 30-year-old's run without dropping a set until the semi-final may have ended, that setback cannot water down the Buffalo native's incredible summer in which she has claimed 15 victories in her last 16 matches.
Motivated by becoming the oldest American woman in the Open Era to advance to a first Slam final and a third aged 30 or older to participate in a title match in Queens after Serena Williams and Martina Navratilova, Pegula seeks a historic first triumph at the majors.
An admirable run to make it to match seven in New York has seen the six-time tour-level champion defeat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarter-final to end a 0-6 drought in last-eight Grand Slam matches, and the sixth seed could upset the world No. 2 in Saturday's eagerly anticipated title match.
Pegula, aiming to match the achievements of Maria Sharapova in 2006 (US Open) and Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2009 (French Open), must defeat the first and second-ranked players to become the first woman since 2009 to win a major after beating the top two players in the world rankings.
Despite the age difference, the first-time finalist in New York can draw inspiration from Coco Gauff's comeback victory over Sabalenka in the 2023 final as she seeks to beat the only woman to inflict a hard-court loss this summer in the biggest match of her career.
That undoubtedly would be an uphill task against a two-time Grand Slam champion and consecutive finalist in New York.
The consistent Sabalenka packs a punch and possibly is the tour's best-performing hard-court player in the leading events, underscored by clinching 26 victories in her previous 27 matches on the surface since the start of 2023.
That sole loss came in last year's final against Gauff, and the 26-year-old second seed hopes that disappointment inspires a different approach in dealing with a partisan crowd inside Arthur Ashe as she bids for a third Grand Slam title.
Sabalenka, like Pegula, has also lost one set in her run to the final, dropping the first set in her round-three success against Ekaterina Alexandrova before ultimately defeating the Russian in the latest-start match in US Open history.
On Saturday, the Australian Open champion bids to keep that run going as she aims to clinch a 14th straight triumph at hard-court Slams to become the first woman since Angelique Kerber (2016) to secure the title in Australia and New York in the same season, a feat achieved by just four players in the Open Era — Steffi Graf (1988, 1989), Monica Seles (1991, 1992), Martina Hingis (1997) and Kerber (2016).
While history will be made in Saturday's women's final, Sabalenka hopes to be on the right side of it, keen to clinch multiple Grand Slams in a single season and a third overall to move behind Venus Williams (seven), her current rival Swiatek (five) and Naomi Osaka (four) among active players.
Tournament so far
Jessica Pegula:
First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-4 6-2
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1
Third round: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2
Semi-final: vs. Emma Navarro 6-3 7-6(2)
Head To Head
Cincinnati (2020) - Round of 16: Pegula 6-2 2-6 6-3
Roland Garros (2020) - First round: Sabalenka 6-3 6-1
Madrid (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-2
Rome (2022) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4
WTA Finals (2022) - Round 1: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5
WTA Finals (2023) - Round 1: Pegula 6-4 6-3
Cincinnati (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5
Sabalenka holds a 5-2 head-to-head advantage over Pegula, with the Belarusian triumphing in their recent match-up in Cincinnati and their previous Grand Slam encounter at Roland Garros in 2020.
However, their last two meetings are tied 1-1, possibly giving the American some motivation having lost four straight encounters against the 26-year-old before last year's victory at the WTA Finals.
Although both players are tied for titles won in 2024 (2-2), Sabalenka's 39-11 win-loss record before the US Open outdoes Pegula's 29-10.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Nobody wants a bad final, and Pegula vs Sabalenka is possibly the best match-up anyone could have wished for: the American has notched 15 wins in 16 heading into Saturday's title match while her Belarusian opponent has reeled off 11 consecutive victories — including a recent win against Pegula in Cincinnati — en route to another final at Flushing Meadows.
Battle-hardened after last year's sore loss to Gauff, Sabalenka should back herself for a third Grand Slam title and first in New York.
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