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Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Friday's Wimbledon semi-final match between Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Weeks after their titanic five-set tussle at Roland Garros, Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic face off at this year's Wimbledon semi-final on Friday.

That third-round match ended at 3am local time in the Serbian's favour, and the Italian aims to scupper the well-rested seven-time champion's bid for a sixth consecutive final at the Championships.


Match preview

This is all new to Musetti, a player who had never advanced beyond the fourth round of any Grand Slam or gone past the third at SW19 until this run.

The 22-year-old's previous best at the tournament came last year, following consecutive round-one exits in 2021 and 2022, but the sun has shone on the 25th seed in 2024, underlined by a kind run that saw him face lowly-ranked opponents before battling the seeded Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals.

Pushed to his limits by the American, Musetti conquered in five thrilling sets to continue an outstanding grass-court form that saw him reach the final in Queen's only to lose to Tommy Paul.

That 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 triumph means the first-time semi-finalist at SW19 has reached the last four at the pre-Wimbledon tournaments in Stuttgart (semis) and Queen's (final), pointing to a player coming on strong on the surface this year.

However, he faces the ultimate test against possibly the greatest player to have played the sport on Friday, against whom he seldom wins.

Djokovic was tipped to go through against Alex de Minaur, but the Australian was forced to withdraw due to a hip injury sustained in his fourth-round win over Frenchman Arthur Fils.

The upshot of De Minaur understandably choosing not to risk aggravating his injury by playing means the seven-time Wimbledon champion advanced to a 13th semi-final at the Championships without taking to the court.

That extra time off should be to the Serbian's advantage, given the risks he has taken to play this year, having undergone a procedure on the knee injury that forced the 24-time Slam champion to withdraw in Paris.

The 37-year-old's naysayers will denigrate the kind draw in the lead-up to the quarter-finals, and a bye in the last eight as an unmistakable sign of the stars aligning for the No. 2 seed, whose only scare came in the second-round match against wild card Jacob Fearnley, a match Djokovic claimed in four.

Having matched Roger Federer's 13 semi-final appearances, the seven-time champion now seeks another final this year — a sixth straight one — to have a shot at claiming a record-equalling eight success on the lawns of Wimbledon.


Tournament so far

Lorenzo Musetti:

First round: vs. Constant Lestienne 4-6 7-6[4] 6-2 6-2
Second round: vs. Luciano Darderi 6-4 4-6 6-7[5] 6-4 6-4
Third round: vs. Francisco Comesana 6-2 6-7[4] 7-6[3] 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 3-6 7-6[5] 6-2 3-6 6-1

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-2 6-2
Second round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-4 5-7 7-5
Third round: vs. Alexei Popyrin 4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6[3]
Round of 16: vs. Holger Rune 6-3 6-4 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur walkover


Head To Head

Roland Garros (2021) - Round of 16: Djokovic 6-7(7) 6-7(2) 6-1 6-0 4-0 ret

Dubai (2022) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-3 6-3

Paris Masters (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 6-0 6-3

Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Round of 16: Musetti 4-6 7-5 6-4

Monte-Carlo Masters (2024) - Round of 16: Djokovic 7-5 6-3

Roland Garros (2024) - Third round: Djokovic 7-5 6-7(6) 2-6 6-3 6-0

While Djokovic's five wins to Musetti's one in their head-to-head makes the Serbian the clear favourite, that statistic does not tell the full story of three of the pair's battles going the distance.

All three have come on clay, and two have come at the French Open, with their first match-up seeing Djokovic rally from two sets down to lead before an exhausted Musetti was forced to retire due to a groin injury.

Even though the Italian bested Djokovic in three at last year's Monte-Carlo Masters, the Serbian got the better of his younger opponent at the same stage this year in the lead-up to a historic five-setter on Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, as Musetti again threatened his superior opponent by leading two sets to one, only to lose the fourth and tire in the fifth in the third-round match that ended at 3:07 am local time.

After four meetings on clay and two on hard courts, the No. 25 seed aims to finally get the better of the 24-time Slam champion at a major.


We say: Djokovic to win in four sets

Having played two five-set matches en route to a maiden Grand Slam semi-final, it remains to be seen if Musetti has enough in the tank to go the distance against an opponent that has bested him in such encounters in the past.

With Djokovic well-rested and only two wins from claiming a historic 25th major, the motivated Serbian is anticipated to make Sunday's final in four.

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Read more about Lorenzo Musetti Novak Djokovic Taylor Fritz Alex de Minaur Jacob Fearnley Roger Federer Constant Lestienne Luciano Darderi Francisco Comesana Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Vit Kopriva Alexei Popyrin Holger Rune Tennis
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