Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Nuremberg had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Nuremberg win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
-0.35) 
0.14) 
