SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.38%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
25.78% ( -0.73) | 22.83% ( -0.12) | 51.38% ( 0.85) |
| Both teams to score 59.77% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.42% ( -0.06) | 40.57% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.04% ( -0.07) | 62.95% ( 0.07) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.09% ( -0.58) | 28.91% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.21% ( -0.72) | 64.79% ( 0.72) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.08% ( 0.28) | 15.91% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.84% ( 0.51) | 45.16% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.39% Total : 25.78% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 7.77% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 3.67% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 2.19% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.59% Total : 51.38% |
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