SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 61.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 17.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 1-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Central Coast Mariners win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
61.72% ( 0.51) | 20.49% ( -0.11) | 17.79% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 56.08% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60% ( -0.18) | 40% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.64% ( -0.18) | 62.36% ( 0.18) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.53% ( 0.09) | 12.47% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.57% ( 0.19) | 38.43% ( -0.19) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.07% ( -0.55) | 35.93% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.29% ( -0.56) | 72.71% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.15)1-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.69% Total : 61.72% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.49% | 1-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.57% Total : 17.79% |
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