SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 60.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Western United had a probability of 17.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Western United win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
60.96% ( 4.92) | 21.3% ( -1.5) | 17.73% ( -3.43) |
| Both teams to score 53.18% ( -0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.22% ( 1.6) | 43.78% ( -1.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.83% ( 1.55) | 66.17% ( -1.55) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.11% ( 2.13) | 13.88% ( -2.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.7% ( 4.05) | 41.3% ( -4.05) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.75% ( -2.71) | 38.25% ( 2.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.99% ( -2.7) | 75.01% ( 2.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
| 1-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.8)2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.98)3-1 @ 6.55% ( 0.52)4-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.69)4-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.47)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.35)5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.26)Other @ 2.92% Total : 60.95% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.71) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.33)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.3% | 0-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.79) 1-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.74)0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.59)1-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.37)2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.23)Other @ 2.25% Total : 17.73% |
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