SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.03%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Malawi |
46.24% ( 4.22) | 30.79% ( 9.17) | 22.98% ( -13.39) |
| Both teams to score 35.62% ( -35.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 29.49% ( -41.65) | 70.5% ( 41.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.45% ( -37.75) | 87.55% ( 37.75) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( -16.35) | 31.13% ( 16.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.54% ( -24.41) | 67.46% ( 24.4) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.72% ( -31.25) | 48.28% ( 31.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.57% ( -36.27) | 83.43% ( 36.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 17.53% ( 12.72) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 5.63)2-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.69)3-0 @ 3.98% ( 1.05)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -2.29)4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 1.06% ( -3.54)Other @ 1.92% Total : 46.23% | 0-0 @ 15.03% ( 12.51) 1-1 @ 12.77% ( 4.25)2-2 @ 2.71% ( -4.5)Other @ 0.27% Total : 30.78% | 0-1 @ 10.94% ( 6.48) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( -2.89)0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.13% ( -3.32)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -1.36)Other @ 1.3% Total : 22.97% |
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