SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Guinea-Bissau in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea-Bissau.
| Result | ||
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
26.84% ( 0.66) | 26.25% ( -0.09) | 46.91% ( -0.58) |
| Both teams to score 49.67% ( 0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.69% ( 0.76) | 54.3% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.3% ( 0.63) | 75.69% ( -0.63) |
| Sao Tome & Principe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.62% ( 0.96) | 35.38% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.86% ( 0.99) | 72.14% ( -0.99) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.86% ( 0.06) | 23.13% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43% ( 0.09) | 57% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sao Tome & Principe | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.04% Total : 26.84% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 9.11% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.82% Total : 46.91% |
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