SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 40.68%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (10.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Gambia |
30.48% ( -2.2) | 28.83% ( 3.16) | 40.68% ( -0.97) |
| Both teams to score 44.44% ( -10.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.06% ( -12.6) | 61.93% ( 12.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.31% ( -10.3) | 81.69% ( 10.3) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.38% ( -8.06) | 36.62% ( 8.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.59% ( -9.06) | 73.4% ( 9.05) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.11% ( -6.37) | 29.88% ( 6.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.02% ( -8.43) | 65.97% ( 8.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Gambia |
| 1-0 @ 10.99% ( 2.58) 2-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.96)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.96)3-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.96)Other @ 1.87% Total : 30.48% | 1-1 @ 13.27% ( 1.09) 0-0 @ 10.94% ( 4.23)2-2 @ 4.03% ( -1.5)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.82% | 0-1 @ 13.21% ( 3.49) 1-2 @ 8.02% ( -0.8)0-2 @ 7.98% ( 0.95)1-3 @ 3.23% ( -1.03)0-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -1.05)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.57)0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.26)Other @ 1.45% Total : 40.67% |
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