Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 48.52%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.7%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Red Bull Salzburg in this match.
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