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Ten games to go: Who will win the Championship?

:Headline: Ten games to go: Who will win the Championship?: ID:210034: from db_amp
With the Championship promotion race unbelievably close, Sports Mole picks apart the eight sides in with a realistic chance of reaching the Premier League.

The Championship never fails to deliver drama and this season it looks like it could be one of the closest races ever for promotion to the Premier League and the millions that come with reaching the top flight.

Ten games of 2014-15 now remain and there are eight sides who are in with a realistic chance of automatic promotion as just eight points separate current league leaders Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers seven places below.

The top four of Bournemouth, Derby County, Watford and Middlesbrough are incredibly all on the same number of points (66), with Norwich City one further back and Brentford and Ipswich Town four and five adrift respectively.

It's all to play for in the final two months of the season and here, Sports Mole analyses each side's chances of reaching the promised land.

We used a prediction tool for all eight sides' fixtures and you can see at the bottom how exactly we think the top eight will line up at 2pm on May 2.


BOURNEMOUTH

Current position: First, 66pts

Recent Championship form: DLLDWW

Remaining fixtures: Blackpool (H), Cardiff City (A), Middlesbrough (H), Ipswich Town (A), Birmingham City (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Reading (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Bolton Wanderers (H), Charlton Athletic (A)

Reason for optimism: The current league leaders thanks to their goal difference which is six better than anyone else's. Bournemouth were also the pacesetters on the opening weekend of the season when they started with a 4-0 win at Huddersfield Town. That set the tone for their free-flowing, attacking mentality under Eddie Howe which sees them lead the league in scoring at an average of more than two goals a game. They have been particularly potent away from home, scoring 10 more on their travels than they have at the Goldsands Stadium.

They will feel that they can outscore any opponent and the last two wins over Wolves and Fulham will have boosted confidence massively following a run of five games without a win. Their run-in could be considered as one of the easiest as they only face two more of the top eight - Boro at home, Ipswich away.

After leading Bournemouth to their highest-ever league finish last season, Howe has taken Bournemouth from strength to strength and they are now tantalisingly close to a first campaign in the top flight.

Reason for doubt: Is there enough experience in the squad? With this being Bournemouth's first realistic chance at promotion to the Premier League, are the players ready to handle the pressure of the final two months? Since the turn of the year, they have won just five out of 12 league games and might feel that they should be further clear. Fortunately for them, plenty of the others in and around the top six have also stuttered in 2015.

They might be formidable on the attack, but it's now eight league games since the Cherries kept a clean sheet. Shoring things up at the back will be one of Howe's top priorities as they enter the final stretch.

Howe has also been fairly fortunate with injuries and has been able to pick his favourite XI for much of the season. Could his luck run out?


DERBY COUNTY

Current position: Second, 66pts

Recent Championship form: DWWLLD

Remaining fixtures: Norwich City (A), Middlesbrough (H), Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Watford (H), Wigan (A), Brentford (H), Blackpool (H), Huddersfield Town (A), Millwall (A), Reading (H)

Reason for optimism: Probably the strongest squad in the league, Derby also boast one of the top managers in former England boss Steve McClaren. His connections and contacts have seen the Rams impressively sign the likes of Jordon Ibe, Darren Bent, Tom Ince and Jesse Lingard, who have only added to the quality of a squad that came so close to playoff success last season.

That heartbreak in the final against Queens Park Rangers will no doubt motivate many of those that were at Wembley in May last year and with packed houses week after week at the iPro Stadium, Derby are probably the favourites for automatic promotion.

That run-in appears to be a menacing one, but if they can take points off those around them in the next four games, they finish with four games that appear to all be very winnable.

Reason for doubt: Unlike Bournemouth, Derby have struggled with injuries of late, particularly in attack. Darren Bent, who began his loan spell from Aston Villa with seven goals in 10 games, is out until April and will miss the crucial upcoming stretch, but top-scorer Chris Martin should be able to return soon. One thing McClaren must not do is rush the latter back and risk losing him for the remainder of the campaign.

One way or another, they need an out-and-out striker back soon as since Bent's injury they have picked up just one point out of a possible nine. Will the Rams make another bold acquisition in the loan market?

Their recent form is iffy, with no wins in three and just two victories in their last seven games. Defensively they are struggling as well, having let in 13 goals in seven games and kept just one clean sheet.


WATFORD

Current position: Third, 66pts

Recent Championship form: WLWWWD

Remaining fixtures: Reading (H), Wigan Athletic (A), Ipswich Town (H), Derby County (A), Middlesbrough (H), Millwall (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Birmingham City (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H)

Reason for optimism: Since December, Slavisa Jokanovic's Hornets have been racking up the wins with 12 victories in 17 games to move level on points with the more consistent sides from the first half of the season.

While Derby are having serious problems up front, Watford are enjoying an abundance of goals from their three strikers. Odion Ighalo began the year in spectacular fashion with 13 goals in nine games, but he has since surprisingly dropped to the bench. Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra, the strikeforce that took Watford to the 2012-13 playoff final, have taken on the scoring load in the last three games by netting all of the club's five goals between them.

Watford's 72 total goals mean that they are just two behind Bournemouth in the attack standings and with goalscoring midfielders like Almen Abdi and Daniel Tozser ready to step in if the front three go cold, it's hard to see many teams outscoring them.

Reason for doubt: Big games. Watford have dropped points in five games since Christmas and in four of those it was against the sides around them. After they lost their first game of 2015 at Huddersfield Town, they have conceded seven goals and scored just two while picking up only a point in the games against Bournemouth, Norwich and Wolves.

After the next two games against Reading and Wigan, Watford face Ipswich, Derby and Boro in three straight games, and whether they finish in the top two could depend on how they fare in those matches given that they should have too much firepower for most other sides in the league.

Those three, however, are the Hornets' only remaining games against their promotion rivals.


MIDDLESBROUGH

Current position: Fourth, 66pts

Recent Championship form: DLWLWL

Remaining fixtures: Ipswich Town (H), Derby County (A), Bournemouth (A), Wigan Athletic (H), Watford (A), Rotherham United (H), Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Norwich City (A), Fulham (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H)

Reason for optimism: Enough about the blistering attacks of Bournemouth, Derby and Watford, this Boro team is all about defence. They have kept clean sheets in 16 of their 36 games and conceded only 26 goals, which is by far the best defensive record in the division.

They also have several options in attack and Aitor Karanka isn't afraid to move his players across the frontline, making it difficult for opposition managers to predict exactly what they will be up against in any given match. The likes of Patrick Bamford, Kike, Lee Tomlin and Jelle Vossen have all been amongst the goals this season and should maybe have scored more.

Depending on how you look at it, their run-in is either favourable or horrible. Karanka will no doubt tell his players that the six games they have against their fellow promotion chasers are chances to take points off their rivals, but it doesn't make those games any easier.

Reason for doubt: It has to be the run-in. The upcoming treble against Ipswich, Derby and Bournemouth is followed by three more games against their challengers in April.

They aren't enjoying the best of times at the moment either. They have only scored more than once in game on one occasion in their last six matches and that was unsurprisingly against all-over-the-place Millwall. Those playing Boro in the upcoming big games might just see them as their best chance to knock someone out of the running.


NORWICH CITY

Current position: Fifth, 65pts

Recent Championship form: WWWWLW

Remaining fixtures: Derby County (H), Huddersfield Town (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Bolton Wanderers (A), Leeds United (A), Middlesbrough (H), Rotherham United (A), Fulham (H)

Reason for optimism: Norwich might be behind the leading quartet, but the gap is only a point and they are the standout side ready to charge through and take up the lead.

Alex Neil's side have won seven of their last eight games to shoot up into automatic-promotion contention and now they are favourites of many to win the league.

The core of last season's Premier League side still remains at Carrow Road and either the Canaries or Derby have the strongest squad on paper. Like Watford, Norwich possess a menacing forward trio and any of Lewis Grabban, Gary Hooper and Cameron Jerome would start every week for almost all other sides in the league.

They also have midfielders in fine goalscoring form, with Bradley Johnson and Jonny Howson netting six goals between them in Norwich's last seven games.

The Canaries' run-in also stands out as relatively easy - they only play two of their promotion rivals and both of those are at home against Derby and Boro.

Reason for doubt: It's hard to see why Norwich won't go on and win the league. They have an array of standout players at this level and also have one of the more favourable run-ins on paper.

Neil has done a fantastic job so far since taking over from Neil Adams, but at just 33, is he ready to make some tough decisions if the going gets tough?


BRENTFORD

Current position: Sixth, 62pts

Recent Championship form: LWWLWD

Remaining fixtures: Cardiff City (H), Blackburn Rovers (A), Millwall (H), Fulham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Derby County (A), Sheffield Wednesday (A), Bolton Wanderers (H), Reading (A), Wigan Athletic (H)

Reason for optimism: You could argue that out of all of the sides in contention for promotion, Brentford are the most impressive. The Bees only came up from League One a year ago and what Mark Warburton has done really is admirable.

He has his side playing a fine brand of football built on quick movement and sharp passing and many opposing fans have singled out the Bees as the best side to visit their stadiums over the course of the season.

It's hard to imagine Brentford storming up into automatic-promotion contention, but take a second look at that run-in - they face a top-eight side just once more (Derby away). Why can't Warburton's men win the league with those fixtures left?

Reason for doubt: Although Warburton is perhaps the Manager of the Season, we know that even if they win the league he is going to leave the club come the summer. Differences over how to take the club forward between him and the owner have resulted in a mutual agreement that will see him depart after a hugely successful spell in charge.

Warburton and the players might have insisted time and time again that they are 100% focused on gaining promotion, but surely the knowledge that your leader is on the way out can't help matters at Griffin Park.

The Bees also have the leakiest defence in the top eight and must shut out some of the lower-ranked sides they are due to come up against in the closing two months.


IPSWICH TOWN

Current position: Seventh, 61pts

Recent Championship form: WLWLLD

Remaining fixtures: Middlesbrough (A), Bolton Wanderers (H), Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), Huddersfield Town (A), Blackpool (H), Cardiff City (H), Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Blackburn Rovers (A)

Reason for optimism: Having Mick McCarthy at the helm is the main reason that Ipswich are the closest they've been to promotion for a decade. McCarthy has taken the Blues from relegation candidates to promotion contenders in two years and done it by barely spending a penny.

The football might not always be pretty, but McCarthy knows how to earn promotion having done it in both of his last posts at Sunderland and Wolves.

The Blues also have the league's standout striker in Daryl Murphy. With 22 goals already, the Irishman is enjoying his finest season in front of goal. He'll want to find the net in this weekend's big game at Boro after producing the miss of the season which would have won the match against Brentford on Saturday.

Murphy's partner in crime, David McGoldrick, is also close to returning to full fitness for the final stretch of the season after missing the last seven games.

Reason for doubt: Ipswich were the strongest team at the end of 2014 with 26 points gained from a possible 30 in November and December. Since the turn of the year it has been a different story with just four wins in 12 games.

They are the most off-form of the top eight and must quickly put that right with a nasty run-in. They still have to play four of their rivals and three of those games come away from home where Ipswich have not been too strong this season.

Defensively, the Tractor Boys are yet to win a game while keeping a clean sheet in 2015 and goals from midfield have been a real problem too. None of their midfielders have managed more than one goal this season and just six in total have come from the middle of the park.


WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Current position: Eighth, 58pts

Recent Championship form: LWWWLD

Remaining fixtures: Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Derby County (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Leeds United (H), Birmingham City (A), Middlesbrough (H), Ipswich Town (A), Wigan Athletic (A), Millwall (H)

Reason for optimism: Sitting eight points behind the pacesetters, Wolves are real outsiders to achieve back-to-back automatic promotions. However, their run-in is fairly pleasant with two of their three games against the other top sides coming at home.

They are also in decent form having lost just three games since early December. The signing of Benik Afobe in January appears to have been a very good one as he already has seven goals in 10 starts.

Bakary Sako is also back to his best after ending a four-month goal drought and with he and Afobe at their most dangerous, defences everywhere will fear facing Wolves.

Reason for doubt: The fact that Wolves have to claw back an eight-point gap means that reaching the playoffs is a much more realistic ambition.

Jackett's men might have won three of their last five games without conceding a goal, but the three most recent games in which they have dropped points have all come against sides above them (Norwich, Bournemouth, Watford).

Being at the back of the pack means that Wolves must do better to take points off the teams above them.


Sports Mole predicts: 1. Watford, 91pts 2. Norwich, 88pts 3. Derby, 88pts 4. Middlesbrough, 88pts 5. Bournemouth, 86pts 6. Ipswich, 79pts 7. Brentford, 77pts 8. Wolves, 75pts
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