Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 54.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
-0.27) 
0.09) 
