Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.02) 
