Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
